There is a lot of conjecture regarding the negative press on the PS3′s launch in North America, and even Japan to an extent. And there have been those who have defended the PS3 launch despite the speculation because of the lack of substantial evidence in its favor. Well, it’s weird that over the course of the past week, I have had the chance to buy a 60GB PS3 – not once, not twice, but on three separate occasions. Unless Sony figured out how to magically beam hundreds of PS3s to retailers simultaneously, it seems as if no one’s buying.

Based on my personal experience and anecdotal evidence, I have to agree with the naysayers on this one. Today, Toys ‘R Us had a sign advertising 60GB PS3 availability, but no lines and no crowds. Yesterday, Best Buy had a 60GB PS3 in the gaming section, just sitting there, with consumers passing it buy uninterested. Target had PS3s in every flavor on two separate occasions this week, at two separate stores. Today they had three 60GB PS3s, no Wiis, no DSs, and only one Xbox 360 Core bundle. More interesting is the accessory wall for the Xbox 360 was almost bare – every Marketplace Points card and Xbox Live subscription card was sold out. Interestingly, I did see two Wiis at one of the Targets on Sunday, but not one before or since.

This time last year, the Xbox 360 was impossible to find until March, despite a slow, steady shipment to retailers. Unless Sony found out how to magically beam hundreds of PS3s similtaneously across the country, there’s a reason why these aren’t selling out. And yes, there are many potential reasons but not any one definitively based in fact, which in turn feeds the Sony fanboy defense.

• The majority of people who bought the PS3 on launch day did so to eBay it and make a profit. No one can say whether it really was the majority – interviews by the gaming press at launch lines seemed to indicate overwhelmingly people were more interested in selling it rather than keeping it – but the sample of interviewees clearly pointed that way.
• Profiteers were not making double or triple the cost shortly after launch and consistently afterwards, despite evidence of short supply of PS3s in retail. Consumers are neither selective or frugal when it comes to hard-to-find holiday items. The laws of supply and demand state when something is in short supply, people will pay more to attain it. But with the PS3, people were only paying marginally more (around ten to fifteen percent above retail), and many auctions didn’t receive any bids at all. Basically, supply was low but demand was also low. So a spike in retail availability was attributed to these same people returning their PS3s and giving up on the grey market. I know this first hand, as I was offered a PS3 by someone at random who was going to otherwise return it.
• No one wanted a PS3 because there aren’t any good games for it. This is evidenced by the low attach rate of the PS3 at launch, but I have to argue against this point, only to an extent. Yes, when compared to the existing libary of the Xbox 360, there isn’t much of a reason to buy a PS3. But if someone was buying the PS3 as their first next-generation system, its library of third-party titles was comparable in both quality and quantity.
• The price is too high. If there were better games available for the PS3, people would be buying it no matter what the price. But at $600, consumers decided to sit on the sidelines. There is no evidence to indicate consumers used their money to buy a competing console, or whether they decided to wait out this holiday season all together. But if they were not buying these systems at auction for a premium, and they aren’t buying them at retail either, there is definitely a problem somewhere along the line.

These problems are not permanent. Supply will increase. Better games exclusive to the PS3 will be released. The price will eventually be reduced. Either of the two latter reasons in combination with the former can create a sales turnaround. But as one cannot definitively say any of the above were actual problems which hurt holiday 2006 sales, one cannot fully discredit them, either.