I’ve been seeing a lot of deals lately on Xbox Live subscription cards and kits. I myself jumped on the $30 13-month subscription card from ToysRUs.com just a few weeks ago. But after recent news from Sony and the build-up into this year’s E3, that $30 doesn’t seem like such a good deal after all.

Sony has already announced they will be launching an online service along with the PS3 hardware launch later this year. And they tried to pull the rug out from under Microsoft by saying they will be providing an integrated online gaming service with free online multiplayer gaming free, without subscription fees. Of course, we all know that Microsoft charges us $50 per year for the same priviledge, many of us Gold members paid through 2006 (I’m actually through January 2008).

It stands to reason Microsoft will need to do something in response to this move by Sony. They can no longer hold onto the vision that people are willing to pay for the priviledge of playing online. After all, Silver accounts already allow us to go online for free, exchange messages, and download free and premium content, so the only major difference between the two is online multiplayer.

What is interesting is that these “deals” might just be retailers clearing their stock of the pre-paid subscriptions in advance of an anticipated announcement at E3. Retailers know these things way in advance – they usually have input into final decisions, and no doubt they were in the room when Microsoft decided to make their stock of pre-paid XBL subscriptions “worthless”. And retailers usually have a good track record of keeping secrets, but this move of liquidating product can definitely be construed as chatter.

So what can, and most importantly will, Microsoft do? The theory is that Microsoft will make Silver accounts multiplayer enabled. It’s an easy change to make; Major Nelson mentioned on one of his podcasts they simply had to change a flag during one of the free Gold weeks to allow Silver accounts to play online. And no free nights and weekends only stuff either – Microsoft needs a level playing field if they want to compare apples to apples with Sony’s online service.

Of course, that’s going to piss off a lot of people who have paid subscriptions in advance. Microsoft has a few of options to make everyone happy:

• They could make premium content downloads free for Gold subscribers
• They could include MMO fees in Gold accounts
• They could offer some sort of free marketplace points or a free game for those who already paid for a Gold account

One thing is for sure – there will be some announcement at E3 regarding some change to Xbox Live. The recent 12-hour downtime wasn’t just to prepare for new downloads and web messaging, there’s some major architecture change that will impact users of the service.

Stay tuned…