Next-Gen Console Predictions

I was listening to a podcast this morning on the way to work, when I had an epiphany. It became clear to me that Nintendo knows exactly what they are doing with the Revolution, and that it will succeed in the next-generation race. As a matter of fact, it will be Microsoft’s main rival in the next-gen sweeps, not Sony.

It is clear – software is the primary driver of game consoles, which is why the PS2 is the greatest console ever. And although Sony is promising all the bells and whistles in the world, it will be the strength of its software which will lead the PS3 toward the next-gen crown. That’s right – Microsoft’s early lead with the Xbox 360 won’t mean anything, as the PS3 will be about even in worldwide numbers by Fall of 2007. And yes, these are worldwide predictions. In terms of the US console race, it will mirror the current generation closely, with the Revolution picking up numbers and being much more competitive.

Saying these are worldwide predictions might reduce the impact of these predictions, because of course the Xbox 360 will only improve marginally in Japan while getting steamrolled by its competition, much like the current generation. The real surprise will be Nintendo, coming from literally nowhere, to save face as a console manufacturer. And it won’t be because of the controller, although like the DS it will be somewhat of a differentiating factor from its competitors to warrant someone to buy it as a second console.

Am I crazy? Well, let me ask – of the three consoles, what is the single factor each company is trumpeting as its main selling point? Easy. For the Xbox 360, it is Xbox Live. For the PS3, it is the graphics. For the Revolution, it is the controller, right? Well, only part right. It is also the ability to play the entire catalog of Nintendo-published titles, dating back to the original NES console.

Now we’re getting somewhere. Let me ask you this – what has been the most impressive function of the Xbox 360? It’s graphics? They’re good, but not a leap from the current Xbox. Xbox Live? Close – the marketplace features are a nice improvement from current generation. But what is the one thing that everyone is talking about? Let me give you a hint – Geometry Wars. It is a simple game that stole the thunder from the major launch titles. And it was only available from Xbox Live Arcade. There’s the golden apple.

Xbox Live Arcade has caught fire from the gaming community, both with consumers and with developers. Xbox 360 owners have purchased on average four XBL Arcade titles. More are on the way, including the announcement Street Fighter II Hyper Fighting will be made available exclusively on Xbox Live Arcade this spring. It is the killer feature that has Sony scrambling. And, the Revolution will have it, too – a similar service for downloading games. Touche, Microsoft!

In addition to Nintendo’s entire back catalog, Sega has also expressed interest in making its classic titles available on Revolution’s game service. Granted, Sega was also one of the companies listed to support XBL Arcade, but the fact that it will also be supporting the Revolution makes that console all the more stronger. And as other companies ramp up support for XBL Arcade with their classic titles, you can be sure there will be divisions created to support this type of game distribution and will make itself available to any console manufacturer which offers such a service. Enter Microsoft and Nintendo. Exit Sony.

Sony has lagged with support for an online gaming infrastructure, and it was beat up pretty hard after it announced the PS3 without any online service. Recent surveys from Sony indicate it is interested in keeping with the current online model used by PS2 titles – that is, decentralized, managed and controlled by the individual game publishers, and difficult to maintain any kind of consistent or organized online experience. As the PS3 is only months away from launch, these surveys only indicate what Sony may be willing to do in the future, not what they are ready to do now.

Saying all that, Sony’s strength will still be its partnerships with major game publishers. Plus, with a combined user base of over 100 million consoles sold between the PSOne and PS2, people will be hesitant to move away from a platform with which they’ve invested over ten years of their time and money. The PS3 will undoubtedly succeed initially, but will be hurt in the long run by not having an online infrastructure to compete against Nintendo and Microsoft.

The real battle will be between the Microsoft Xbox and the Nintendo Revolution. In Japan, it will be no contest – the Revolution will win hands down, and will even challenge Sony for the top spot. Worldwide, the battle between Revolution’s innovation and Xbox 360′s heavy line-up of Western game support will polarize consumers. The race will come down to which line-up of downloadable games is stronger. Will it be Nintendo’s back catalog of games, along with support from other publishers each making available their classic gaming titles? Or will it be Microsoft’s strong ties with independent publishers and new titles developed by major publishers for the XBL Arcade service? Will Microsoft’s niche be to create a virtual MAME, in order to combat Nintendo’s army of classic console games? Time will tell, but I give the edge to Nintendo. After all, what would you rather be playing, Joust or Super Mario Bros.? Smash TV or Earthbound? Gauntlet or Zelda? I think you get the picture.

Nintendo will appear to be uncharacteristically aggressive in the next-generation console war, only because publishers will be throwing themselves with support for the Revolution, realizing the gaming giant has finally emerged from its slumber. Sony’s software support will be strong initially, but as this shift occurs, they will try to influence publishers with their giant wallet. Nintendo’s leverage will be their momentum, and as a result will not let any feasible opportunity to sink the competition pass by. This is where Nintendo’s aggressive behavior will come into play, and as a result there will be a lot more exclusive third-party titles making appearances on Nintendo hardware this time around. Or at least a lot less exclusive third-party titles on Sony hardware.

And where will Microsoft fit? They will battle Sony for Western supremacy, while jockeying Nintendo in the content distribution wars worldwide, and staying afloat in Japan thanks to more cross-platform development and droves of developers leaving Sony for more fertile console land. They will probably have comparable sales with the Revolution in terms of the worldwide market, as I said before people will initially buy a PS3, and then either an Xbox 360 or Revolution as their second console. Thus, Microsoft will gain ground on Sony but lose ground to Nintendo, resulting in about the same showing as in the current-generation race.

One thing is for sure – there will be a change in the landscape for hardware and software during the next generation of gaming. As with the old saying, “it’s not how you start but how you finish”, it will seem like business as usual early on, but at the end things will look much different.

PSP Media Manager – File Format Plug-Ins?

I found something interesting when booting up the PSP Media Manager. During the load window, the message “Initializing file format plug-ins” flashes across the bottom. I did a screen-capture of this, which you can see in the picture above (click to Flickr).

As we may or may not already know, the PSP Media Manager will convert DVDs for the PSP format. But as we also may or may not already know, it doesn’t recognize DivX or XviD as valid video formats for conversion. Perhaps, with the advent of plug-ins, Sony (or hopefully the user community) will be able to build plug-ins to recognize and convert other types of media, such as those mentioned above.

Raimi Loves the Japanese

In a move I applaud and at the same time think it’s about four years too late, Sam Raimi has aquired the film rights for the Sony horror title Siren. As most of us know, Raimi also produced the English remake to Ju-On (“The Grudge“). He also knows how to remake a foreign film the correct way, as he used the same director as the original film (Takashi Shimizu) and kept the setting in Japan, although he changed the leads to English speaking characters. As to why they just didn’t subtitle or dub the original Japanese verison and release it here, that’s for another topic.

By the way, there is a Siren film currently in production in Japan, so I don’t know if this is the rights to the game itself or the rights to the film version of the game.

And just to clarify my earlier statement: I don’t think that Raimi is late in licensing Siren specifically, but I do think Hollywood is late to pick up on Asian cinema in general. Again, for another discussion.

Been Played – Phantasy Star Online (Dreamcast)

EGM, in celebration of their 200th issue, have published an article listing “The Greatest 200 Videogames of Their Time”. In actuality, it’s pretty much a list of the greatest videogames of all time. since it even includes Pong (number ten).

Now, before I go on, I have to say that I love lists, and most of the time it’s not because I agree with them. Lists, whether they are all-time lists, year-end lists, or whatever, are made for a couple reasons: one, to acknowledge a particular person’s or party’s favorites; two, to give credit to the people responsible for creating said favorites; but primarily three, to create controversy and inspire conversation. Lists are opinions, whether it’s of one single person or a compilation of people, and just like all other opinions, everyone has ‘em, and they’re all different. Even people with the same opinion can discuss their particular points and reasons for days on end. Talk radio is based on this premise. People want to be heard.

Saying all that, EGM definitely was heard with their Greatest 200 list. My point is not to challenge the entire list, or even replicate the list in any way, but to give kudos for giving credit to a game I was afraid would be overlooked as time went on. This game is Phantasy Star Online, for the Sega Dreamcast, ranked at a surprising #21 on the list.

PSO was released on the Dreamcast back in 2001, and it was memorable for several reasons. One, it was a classic Sega franchise making its next-generation debut. Two, it was resurrected by Yuji Naka and Team Sonic, which seemed to strike gold with every franchise they touched. But three, and probably most notable, it was the first, or at least one of the first, true console MMORPGs to hit a very infant market. Modern MMORPGs (excluding MUDs) had been successful for at least a few years on the PC, the most popular being Everquest, but consoles lacked the infrastructure, or even the hardware, to support online gaming. Enter the Dreamcast, with its built-in modem adapter and optional broadband adapter; and the online service SegaNet. One can argue the Dreamcast was made for PSO, or vice versa, but any way you spin it, they were a match made in heaven.

PSO had a few interesting aspects which are now commonplace in online gaming. First is the lobby system. Players can guide their avatars around any of the several available servers (divided by geographic location, but players are free to roam on any of them) and chat with any of the players in order to organize a party for a quest. Now, I mentioned geographic location because this is very integral to the game’s experience. PSO had a universal chat system using pre-defined statements that could be translated into any of the game’s supported languages. That means, you could carry on a conversation with someone in Japan with little difficulty, where both players would use their native language to communicate. So, when I would chat, a chat bubble would pop up in my language. On the other end, that bubble would pop up in that player’s native language. Although the statements were pre-defined, there was still a large selection, all sorted by categories and types of responses. So you could ask someone their favorite movie, or how old they are, etc. There were also emoticons, pre-defined and user-defined, that could be used to communicate.  Thinking back on it, it was a really amazing system, and was completely effective. Online voice chat wasn’t made possible on a console until Alien Front Online, so a virtual keyboard via the controller was the primary method of communication, but the Dreamcast keyboard peripheral was preferred.

The second interesting aspect of PSO is the actual quest, which comprised of four people in a party. For a console, it was amazing. Little lag over a 56k connection, playing along with three other people from all over the globe. The chat system worked great in the quest as well, with statements like “I need help” or “I think we go this way”. Players could trade items they found in the quests with other players, and there was always bartering going on in the lobby. It was an awesome experience – I can remember partying with my friend in Chicago and two players from Japan, and there was hardly any communication barrier.

PSO came out on the Gamecube and Xbox and generally failed, primarily because it contained the same content as the Dreamcast version. Add to that a monthly fee, and people just didn’t want to pay to play the same game they did a couple years prior. Also, and I speak only about the Xbox version, people weren’t warm to paying a monthly fee on top of a yearly Xbox Live fee. But there were also a couple of other reasons why I think it failed in an environment which was clearly more favorable toward online gaming. The first, again with the Xbox version, voice chat killed the integrated text-based chat system which was so integral to the experience. The chat system was still there, but it was rendered pointless because of my next point – Xbox Live restricted players to servers in their geographic region. That means, you couldn’t have a player in the US playing with other players around the globe. The next-generation versions supported split-screen gaming, but even the Xbox version dropped the ball when it required you to have an Xbox Live account, even if you never played online.

So it’s refreshing that a title which overstayed its welcome still resonates enough in the gaming community to get ranked so high on EGM’s list. The original impact of the game remains untarnished in my mind, and hopefully future incarnations of the series will be able to evolve while still providing the experience of the original.

Why Didn’t They Think of That? Clock-Triggered Events

Sometimes when playing a game, you think to yourself, “why didn’t the developers think of that?” It’s the thought which gives all of us confidence that in some way, we can all design and develop at least part of a quality video game.

Today’s installment isn’t something I’ve come up with personally, but it’s something that has been used so sparingly that it’s nearly a shame. That something is Clock-Triggered Events.

Every current console has an internal clock that has the current time and date. But back in the days of the Sega Saturn, it was something that hadn’t really been used before. And the Sega Saturn used the internal clock to great effect in select games. For instance, the NiGHTS Into Dreams: Christmas NiGHTS demo had certain holiday events occur during the Christmas season, such as Nightopians (the citizens of the game world) dressed in Santa outfits, snow covering the ground, Christmas trees and gift-wrapped packages everywhere, and Clairis, Elliot and NiGHTS himself decked out in holiday gear. Even the music changed to reflect the season.

But what was so cool was that the game did so much more. At specific times of the day, the game would offer extra content. And on other dates, such as Valentine’s Day or April Fools Day, the game world would offer something completely different. It was a great example of the potential use of the internal clock.

Other Saturn games used the clock, but not always in the same way. I remember booting up Enemy Zero on New Year’s Day and getting a “Happy New Year” greeting from the in-game computer. Burning Rangers, another Yuji Naka title, also made use of the internal clock. There are undoubtedly many others that I’m not familiar with that had used the Saturn clock in a variety of ways.

But since then, there haven’t been any memorable titles to use the internal clock to the same effect. As a matter of fact, I can’t think of any with the current generation of consoles, sans Animal Crossing. Recently Microsoft offered a premium download for Kameo that changed the game characters to wear Christmas outfits, but this wasn’t time triggered, and didn’t effect the game world in any way. I know MMORPGs have holiday content, and it attracts a lot of attention from the gaming community. Why this feature in consoles has gone the way of the dodo is beyond me.

Providing this kind of seasonal content keeps games fresh and keeps gamers coming back to them long after the initial gaming experience.

Search for the Perfect Gamer Girl Pt. IV – Diane Mizota

In memorial of Diane’s Filter being cancelled by G4, I thought I’d give her a proper send-off as my next contestant in the search for the perfect gamer girl.

Looks: She showed up this season in tip-top shape, having obviously toned-up and shed a few pounds. It’s a shame Diane’s show was canceled recently, because this season she was looking fine. Her exotic good-looks nearly dwarf any of her former G4 counterparts. In summation – she’s smokin’. As long as she never puts on an Everquest costume again, I’ll give her a Nine of Ten.

Personality: She is the antithesis of G4, so let me count the ways: One, she has a successful Hollywood career, or at least she is finding steady supporting work and not waiting tables. Her Filter gig is obviously just for earning spending money. Two, she is obviously my kind of gamer, playing her Nintendo DS for kicks and professing her love for Katamari. Anything more and she wouldn’t be a hot girl anymore, she would be an annoying dork chick that happened to be hot, and her best friend would be Jessica Chobot. And three, she is credited as “Hot Traxx Dancer” in Boogie Nights. Now that’s what I’m talking about, a girl who plays an exotic dancer in a movie about the porn industry! Ten of Ten.

Name: Diane Mizota? Not good. But she deserves more than that, so instead I’ll judge her from her character name in Austin Powers: Goldmember: Fook Mi. Yeah, baby, yeah! Ten of Ten.

Wow, almost a perfect score! Diane, congrats for holding the current crown in the Game Girl sweeps. Or should I say Fook Mi? Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?

Franchises that Shouldn’t Die – Colony Wars and the Space Shooter

Starting today I will be doing a regular feature entitled Franchises that Shouldn’t Die, focusing on classic games from the past that haven’t yet reached their shelf-life. Today’s installment of Franchises that Shouldn’t Die addresses a genre of gaming that seems to have faded away, but also one of the games in the that helped define and evolved the genre. I’m talking about the death of the Space Shooter, and the classic Psygnosis franchise Colony Wars.

Psygnosis was a UK developer and publisher known early in its existence for innovative Amiga titles, but not much else. It had a brief foray into the console market with the Sega CD, and porting its popular Lemmings title to multiple platforms. But it didn’t hit its stride until the release of Sony’s Playstation console and the advent of 3D gaming. It seems as if Psygnosis was better able to handle the foray into 3D better than anyone. Sony realized this and capitalized on their expertise, purchasing the company and releasing their titles as a second-party developer. Of those early titles, many became franchises spawning multiple titles over the years. WipEout, Destruction Derby, Formula 1, and G-Police. But one of my favorites has to be Colony Wars.

The Space Shooter genre had roots in the early days of console gaming, but really grew roots on the PC in the early 1990s. Most notably, LucasArts’ X-Wing and the Wing Commander series were the most critically and commercially accepted, but others such as Descent: Freespace, X-Com: Interceptor, the failed MMO Earth and Beyond, and probably the last great space shooter, Microsoft’s own Starlancer series.

But on console or PC, nothing captured that cinematic and graphically immersive experience as Psygnosis’ Colony Wars. At the time, it was the first to provide advances in 3D graphics to a home console. The high-action space battles were made that much more impressive and enhanced the mission objectives, and the gameplay was benefited by a brilliant branching system that resulted in multiple story campaigns. In addition, the movie-quality CD soundtrack was something that was never done before in a space shooter, and truly brought the genre to the next generation. It was popular with critics and audiences, and like other titles in the Psygnosis family, it spawned other titles in the franchise. Colony Wars: Vengance, the second title in the franchise, introduced ground-based battles into the mix, but personally I felt it was a little lacking in both gameplay and presentation. By the third title, Colony Wars: Red Sun, Sony had turned its back on the franchise, albeit a great return to form. Midway had published the title to little fanfare, and it seemed as if it was the last hurrah for both the franchise and Psygnosis, which soon after folded into Sony Computer Entertainment Europe.

Since then, the space shooter genre has seemed to evolve into more PC strategy titles with Homeworld, Nexus, and the MMO EVE. The console has seen even less, as FPS and hybrid titles push the pure Space Shooter out to die. I can think of only a few console shooters of the current generation: Robotech, Battlestar Gallactica, and Battle Engine Aquila, which was really more of a ground-based, mech title. Regardless, these titles weren’t exactly stellar in their gameplay, and didn’t give much reason for fans to pick them up.

In my opinion, not one of these titles came close to the presentation and gameplay that the original Colony Wars had introduced in the mid-’90s. And it’s unfortunate, because as consoles evolve and graphical capabilities increase, the worlds that can be created in the genre truly have no limits. Also, the online capabilities of consoles truly stretch the virtual universe that can be traversed, and online collaboration such as voice chat can bring the player closer to that utopian gaming experience.

In contrast, Sci-Fi has become increasingly popular over the years on television and feature films. Of course, the most popular is Star Wars, but also shows such as Star Trek, Stargate, Battlestar Gallactica, and Babylon 5 have captured devoted fanbases, respectable ratings and critical approval. But yet, more and more space-themed games have taken the route of the FPS or third-person action title.

If a resurgence of the Space Shooter is to be made, the Colony Wars franchise is probably in the best position for it. Not only does it have an established fanbase and history behind it, but it also seems as if the license may be available for a developer to pick up, since the last title in the franchise was published by Midway. If a developer treats a new Colony Wars title with the necessary passion and care, it would do much for the fading genre, as well as bring a new audience to the franchise that it so definitely deserves.

The Best Console Ever

As the twilight of the current generation of consoles starts to fade, I thought I would reflect on gaming’s past. Specifically, what is the best console that has ever been released? My criteria is based on the quantity and quality of software support received, installed consumer base, and additional functionality brought to the gaming experience.

Saying that, the best console ever is:

Sony PS2

The amount of software available, in all global markets, for the PS2 is staggering. Its library has a breadth of options that has never been matched by any console before it. And before anyone brings up the PSX, or PSOne, I’ve factored those titles into the PS2 repertoire because of its backwards compatibility functionality. There will undoubtedly be arguers that quantity does not surpass quality, but in fact the PS2 has more system-selling titles than its competitors combined, and even listing the top-tier developers from around the globe would be a longer list than I care to begin. People might have their favorites titles on competing consoles, but one would struggle to avoid naming any triple-A PS2 games.

In addition, the PS2 brought several ancillary functions, some of which have been done on competitor consoles, and sometimes better executed. For instance, the external hard drive, progressive scan capability, and online functionality were all better used on the Microsoft Xbox, but they still existed on the PS2. Peripheral support on the PS2 was superior thanks to the USB interface. First-party support, with the EyeToy, was revolutionary. And as mentioned, backwards compatibility sealed the deal for most consumers.

As long as Sony receives the software support from developers as it has in the previous generations, it will keep getting better. That said, SpotAnime gives the current crown to the PS2.

Honorable Mention: Nintendo Super Nintendo (Famicon)

Nintendo was nearly three years late to the 16-bit console wars, and faced an uphill battle against Sega’s Genesis (Mega Drive). But it used it’s most powerful arsenal of weapons against to eventually surpass and outlive its competitor: software. Just as the PS2 was made powerful because of unimaginable developer support, Nintendo used it’s strong first-party development along with its third-party alliances to create a game force that couldn’t be resisted by consumers.

Many of Super Nintendo’s software titles are celebrated as classics in gaming, even to this day. Zelda, Mario, and Metroid ruled the first-party titles, where Final Fantasy and other Squaresoft franchises had followings large enough to eventually unseat Sega as the top video game console manufacturer. These titles are still enjoyed today through ports to Nintendo’s handheld consoles, and it can even be said they have influenced and driven the emulation scene, so that gamers can still enjoy these classics.

Nearly fifteen years later, the Super Nintendo is as relevant today as it was when it was first released. It’s longevity solidifies it as one of the best consoles ever.

Why Didn’t They Think of That? Real-Time Conditions

Sometimes when playing a game, you think to yourself, “why didn’t the developers think of that” It’s the thought which gives all of us confidence that in some way, we can all design and develop at least part of a quality video game.

So in this first installment of an ongoing series, “Why Didn’t They Think of That?”, I will present to you one of my longest game design features that I’ve held so long that I’m surprised no one else has ever incorporated it into a game since. For lack of a better term, I’ll call it Real-Time Conditions.

The thought came to me way back in 1999 at the Dreamcast launch. The SegaNET infrastructure hadn’t launched yet, so online multiplayer was not yet available. But here was NFL2K, sitting in a Dreamcast with an online port, and the two were not yet integrated. And then I had an idea on how to utilize that online port without the infrastructure in place.

When I play a sports title, I don’t usually play through a virtual season. I’ll most likely replay a few select games from that year’s real season, most of the time to relive an exiting game or to erase an embarrassing loss. And I’ll tell you I’m a Chicago Bears fan, so I’ve had my share of both over the years. But in order to relive that real-life experience, I want it to be as close as possible to how things played out. So that not only means authentic rosters, but also game-time conditions, such as weather and time of day.

Now this might be as easy as adjusting the game options prior to the snap, but what if it was a game in a different city, several weeks prior? Wouldn’t it be cool to have an option that, when selected, would automatically select and configure the actual game conditions for that particular date in history for that location? Taking it one step further, what about two options: one for historical conditions, and another for current conditions? By entering in the gamer’s location, perhaps from a gamertag or game profile, the current conditions outside would be automatically selected for a particular sporting event. For instance, an early morning tee time for an early morning game of golf? Or trapped inside during a blizzard, see what it would be like to actually play a game in those same conditions? This could extend not only to team sports like football, soccer and baseball, but also to racing titles, golf titles, pretty much anything not played indoors or those which could be called because of weather and conditions.

These options don’t seem to be particularly difficult to implement, and would pull the gamer closer to a realistic gaming experience.

EA Jumping the Shark

I am an EA shareholder, and I am ready to sell my shares. I’m afraid for my investment, even though my portfolio is diversified, because the run-up on EA stock over the past three years is nearly over. Analysts are predicting a crash during the next-generation of console gaming; I don’t agree, but I do see a transformation of the console landscape for software publishing. Unfortunately, EA is the largest mountain on this landscape, and they are so bloated right now they won’t be able to move out of the way in time.

Almost every EA title has underperformed, both critically and financially, in the past twelve months. Title after title, whether it is a new license, movie tie-in, or sports iteration, has lasted about as long as it takes to read the review that pans it. The only exceptions have been its Madden franchise, since it’s basically a monopoly; and ironically two PC titles, Battlefront 2 and The Sims. Where it could have excelled – in new consoles like the Xbox 360, PSP and DS – the titles have been exceptionally poor and, more importantly, left an indelible mark with consumers. The much-lauded association with Marvel produced the coaster Marvel: Rise of the Imperfects, failed on every console it was launched.

I’m sure the argument many people may have with me is that EA is consistently the top publisher, and had been throughout 2005. True, if you look at any given week at the NPD sales charts, there’s not one week where an EA title isn’t in the top five, either for PC or console. What is alarming is the consistent amount of “misses” the company has been releasing, as well as the sharp decline of sales for individual games after their initial release.

Expensive and exclusive licenses are receiving sub-par releases, and sooner or later this will catch up with EA the way it did with Acclaim. Consumers will see the next Harry Potter title and dismiss it because it is released on the name of the license rather than the quality of the game. Harry Potter is an obvious example, but what about Madden? Without competition, and yearly releases which what amounts to nothing but a roster update, it could follow the same fate.

Games are particularly difficult to develop on new consoles, but regardless consumers expect quality from an EA title. Developers are having trouble grasping the PSP and load times and framerate issues have marred a somewhat valid attempt at first generation software. It is somewhat easier to develop for the Xbox 360, although high definition requirements bring their own difficulties to the development life cycle. Nonetheless, EA released an entire suite of scaled-down titles that, gameplay-wise, are inferior to their last-generation sibling, albeit at a price point that is ten dollars more. Burning consumers like this does not make good business practices.

But what is probably most important is that the future looks bleak for EA. Aside from Black, there isn’t a high-profile IP in the queue. How long will the company rule the roost with the next James Bond, Lord of the Rings, or Tiger Woods title? This is where I see the restructure to occur. As EA becomes too big to change its business strategies, other publishers will form alliance with smaller developers to produce more diversified titles and, more importantly, IPs for the next generation of gaming. EA has realized this by expressing interest in Ubisoft, and in their hostile takeover of Battlefield developer Dice, but it will be too little too late. Also, developers are already leaning away from using RenderWare, replacing it with the Unreal Engine as the middleware of choice for the next generation. This means aside from the Burnout series and potentially Black, their investment of Criterion won’t be justified.

It will be a slow, painful change at the top for EA. They certainly have enough cash to cruise on autopilot for the next year or so, but as the next generation of consoles emerge, you can mark my words there will be a new number-one publisher. Until then, I’ll be waiting in the wings with my investment money.